Internal beta for public oil-market forecast extraction, source roles, and human review. Public promotion waits until sample size and review policy are stable.
Human-reviewed price calls only. Official report sources are tracked separately as fundamental signals.
| # | Source | Type | Verified | Hit rate | Avg error ($/bbl) | Review | Bias | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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OPEC MOMR, EIA STEO, and IEA OMR are supply-demand signal sources. They are not treated as direct WTI price-call forecasters.
If a forecaster you care about isn't here, email us — we add by request.
Official reports, transcripts, interviews, and news leads are ingested daily. Official report sources stay in the supply-demand signal path unless a direct price call is human verified.
An LLM normalizes expert calls into {instrument, direction, target_price, target_date, confidence}.
OPEC/EIA/IEA reports are classified as fundamental signals rather than price calls.
Each price call is graded against actual close on the target date (or the closest trading day). Hit = direction correct AND target reached within ±10% over the window. Miss = direction wrong, or target missed. Avg error is the mean absolute USD/bbl gap between target and realized price.
This is a scoreboard built on public commentary. Sources never asked to be ranked. We publish raw quotes, errors of interpretation are likely. If a source disputes a call, we'll review and correct or remove it.
Pro subscribers can export the full prediction history (15 sources × 90 days) as CSV and call the scoring API. Free tier shows the scoreboard and source detail pages.
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