Source Accountability Beta

Source review beta,
human-checked before release.

Internal beta for public oil-market forecast extraction, source roles, and human review. Public promotion waits until sample size and review policy are stable.

15 sources tracked 90-day rolling window LLM-extracted, human-spot-checked

Price-call scorecard

Human-reviewed price calls only. Official report sources are tracked separately as fundamental signals.

# Source Type Verified Hit rate Avg error ($/bbl) Review Bias
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Fundamental signal registry

OPEC MOMR, EIA STEO, and IEA OMR are supply-demand signal sources. They are not treated as direct WTI price-call forecasters.

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All tracked sources

If a forecaster you care about isn't here, email us — we add by request.

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Methodology

1. Capture

Official reports, transcripts, interviews, and news leads are ingested daily. Official report sources stay in the supply-demand signal path unless a direct price call is human verified.

2. Extract

An LLM normalizes expert calls into {instrument, direction, target_price, target_date, confidence}. OPEC/EIA/IEA reports are classified as fundamental signals rather than price calls.

3. Score

Each price call is graded against actual close on the target date (or the closest trading day). Hit = direction correct AND target reached within ±10% over the window. Miss = direction wrong, or target missed. Avg error is the mean absolute USD/bbl gap between target and realized price.

4. Disclose

This is a scoreboard built on public commentary. Sources never asked to be ranked. We publish raw quotes, errors of interpretation are likely. If a source disputes a call, we'll review and correct or remove it.

Pro tier

Want the raw CSV?

Pro subscribers can export the full prediction history (15 sources × 90 days) as CSV and call the scoring API. Free tier shows the scoreboard and source detail pages.

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